FOSL
Fossil Group, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · NMS
$4.10
Close 2026-05-13
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$242.2M
Trailing P/E
Forward P/E
43.16
Rev Growth
-18.0%
Profit Margin
-7.8%
ROE
-69.7%
Analyst Target
$7.00
Recommendation
STRONG BUY
About Fossil Group, Inc.

Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, SKECHERS, and TORY BURCH. It sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department and specialty retail stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, retail concessions, and airlines, as well as operate stores under the WATCH STATION and WSI brands. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $4, 187% above fair value of $1. Fails ethical screen (Debt ratio). Ranks better than 0% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (1.31%)FAIL
Cash Ratio (0.42%)FAIL
Receivables Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 30.5
Score Quality: 15.0
Score Combined: 23.9
Fair Value Est: $1.43 · Margin of Safety: -65.2% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation20.2
Quality0.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet0.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity0.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance29.4
Tier: AVOID · Score: 14.3 · Rank: #5074
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-12-0.22Pending--
2026-05-13-0.28-0.03+89.5%
2026-03-11-0.15--
2025-11-13-0.36-0.63-75.0%
2025-08-13-0.21-0.10+52.4%
2020-08-12-1.71-0.30+82.6%
2020-06-03-1.51-1.36+9.7%
2020-02-260.770.06-92.3%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$224.8M-$810.0K$15.0M$134.7M$14.1M-0.01
2025-12-31$280.5M-$18.6M$3.3M$161.0M$12.5M-0.33
2025-09-30$270.2M-$39.9M-$24.6M$132.4M-$14.4M-0.76
2025-06-30$220.4M-$2.3M$11.4M$126.7M$15.8M-0.04
2025-03-31$233.3M-$17.6M-$6.6M$143.0M$9.2M-0.33
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2020-07-15DOSHI SUNIL MOfficer40,000--
2020-07-15REY MARCDirector5,520--
2020-05-20MANSELL KEVINDirector6,500--
2020-05-20BELGYA MARK RDirector6,500--
2020-05-20NEAL DIANE LDirector6,500--
2020-05-20CHIASSON WILLIAM BDirector6,500--
2020-05-20JONES KIM HARRISDirector6,500--
2020-05-20TIFFORD GAIL BDirector6,500--
2020-04-15BELCHER RANDYOfficer24,747--
2020-04-15BOYER JEFFREY NChief Operating Officer76,366--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Nantahala Capital Management, LLC5.4M$22.5M0.1%
Miller Value Partners, LLC2.4M$10.1M0.0%
HG Vora Capital Management, LLC2.2M$9.0M0.0%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC2.1M$8.9M0.0%
Millennium Management Llc1.7M$7.0M0.0%
Two Sigma Investments, LP1.4M$5.7M0.0%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.1.2M$4.8M0.0%
Kanen Wealth Management LLC1.1M$4.7M0.0%
American Century Companies Inc1.1M$4.7M0.0%
Acadian Asset Management. LLC1.0M$4.2M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
2 Months Ago
1
1
2 analysts
Last Month
1
1
2 analysts
Current
1
1
2 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$461.2M
Price/Book
2.26
Analysts
2
Total Revenue (TTM)
$995.9M
Total Debt
$299.7M
Rec. Mean
1.50
Short Ratio
4.99
Short % Float
0.1%
Employees
4,500

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 23.9 (P2 — top 98.1% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical FAIL. 2 analysts at Strong Buy.
Price: $4.10 | Target: $7.00 (+71%) | Fair Value: $1.43 (+-65%)
Score
24
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+71%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth-18.0%
Profit Margin-7.8%
ROE-69.7%
Forward P/E43.2
Market Cap$242.2M
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-12$-0.22Pending
2026-05-13$-0.28$-0.03+89.5%
2025-11-13$-0.36$-0.63-75.0%
2025-08-13$-0.21$-0.10+52.4%
2020-08-12$-1.71$-0.30+82.6%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $3.48 (-15%) | Entry: $4.10
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($7.00, 2 analysts)
10$41.00+$29.00 (71%)4.7R
50$205.00+$145.00 (71%)4.7R
100$410.00+$290.00 (71%)4.7R
To Fair Value ($1.43)
10$41.00+$-26.70 (-65%)-4.3R
50$205.00+$-133.50 (-65%)-4.3R
100$410.00+$-267.00 (-65%)-4.3R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (4.99 days to cover)
  • Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Fossil Group, Inc. holds a weak competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
55.0
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Quality: STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-7.8%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-11.2%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.99
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-61.7%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
65
Liquidity Grade
LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.8x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
62.5%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
KBT.KW-0.209
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Tuesday
Worst Day
Friday
Best Month
Nov
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.688888231949095
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+71.3%
Beat Drift Positive %
100.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-14.3%
3M Return
-16.8%
6M Return
+83.7%
12M Return
+161.9%
Momentum Rank
#757
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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