NAS10031,224+0.48%S&P7,819+0.58%GOLD$4,155−0.77%BTC$84,202−1.58%VIX15.01−3.29%live tape · as of 07:27 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation
FCF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.1B · 1,592 employees
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
20.94 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-24 · not a live quote Last reviewed 13 days ago
Screened 2026-09-24 · the tape above runs as of 07:27 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 20.94 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 25.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price20.94 USD
Fair value25.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown20.94+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation19.91+5.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation holds its Markdown at $20.94. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$20.94
Valuation
12.77 trailing · 10.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
First Commonwealth Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional banks trip our ethical screen every time
Picture a branch in western Pennsylvania where locals deposit pay cheques and chase small business loans. The operation runs on familiar rails, yet First Commonwealth lands straight in our avoid column because it is a bank. Revenue growth sits at 9 percent with a 32 percent profit margin and 10 percent ROE, numbers that look steady until the cycle shifts and credit losses arrive.
We pass because the ethical screen rules out the entire sector regardless of the 10.7 times forward earnings or the modest gap to our $23 fair value. Analyst targets cluster around the current $21 price and offer no extra margin once the ethical line is drawn.
Cyclical banks often print low multiples near peaks, and that pattern is exactly why the valuation looks less like a bargain and more like a warning. Currency and rate swings add further pressure that a plain regional player cannot escape. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FCF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$20.94-0.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-08-28Accumulation$21.06-0.3%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-28Accumulation$21.12+6.1%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Accumulation$19.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Accumulation$19.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$19.91Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
