Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
China Yuchai International Limited holds its Distribution at $37.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$37.43
Valuation
12.95 trailing · 9.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
95.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 95.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
357.27%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 357.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +78% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chinese engine maker trips on debt and ethics
Every truck that rumbles across a Chinese road or generator that fires up in a blackout relies on heavy diesel power. Yuchai sits in that supply chain, showing 23% revenue growth and trading at 11.1 times forward earnings against a stated fair value well above the current price. Yet the business carries a weak moat, single-digit returns on equity and wafer-thin 2% profit margins, which together suggest the low multiple reflects more than simple undervaluation.
We pass. The ethical screen flags excessive debt, and the company is a classic cyclical that often prints peak earnings just as multiples compress. A 73% margin of safety on paper does not offset either issue when earnings are tied to construction and transport cycles that turn quickly.
Risk sits in leverage and thin profitability that leave little room for downturns or rising interest costs. The combination keeps the name off limits regardless of headline growth. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CYD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-26Markup$43.90-22.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 22.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Markup$56.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 154%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 51%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Markup$56.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$56.76Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
