Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-01
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price93.48 USD
Fair value97.79
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-23Read Markup89.43+4.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Bank of Nova Scotia holds its Distribution at $93.48. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$93.48
Valuation
17.18 trailing · 13.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The Bank of Nova Scotia does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 4.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +2% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bank With Solid Numbers But Ethical Red Flag
Picture a Canadian bank handling everyday accounts and loans across the Americas. The Bank of Nova Scotia posts 13% revenue growth, 28% profit margins and a moderate moat, yet it fails the ethical screen on business activity. That single failure overrides the numbers for us.
The forward P/E of 13.5x sits below many peers while ROE runs at 11% and analysts hold a median target of $91 against the current $89.43 price. A 5% margin of safety to fair value looks modest rather than compelling once the ethical issue is factored in, so we pass.
Banks carry cyclical exposure that can compress earnings quickly when rates or credit conditions shift. The ethical screen exists precisely to avoid these situations. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BNS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup$93.48+8.1%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $90.
2026-08-25Markup$86.44+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$86.44+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $90. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$86.44+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$86.44+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$86.44-2.4%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$88.55+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-19Markup$88.55+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-18Markup$88.55-1.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$89.43+11.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $81.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
