The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI.JK
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk provides various banking products and services in Indonesia and internationally.
read at $2,970.00
Bank Rakyat Indonesia holds its Distribution at $2,970.00.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · screen not yet scored
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 250 days |
| Price | $2,970.00 |
| Valuation | 7.63 trailing · 6.75 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 30.0 |
| Beta | 0.22 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 62% discount to our $4,812.50 fair value, 16.30% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 16.30% |
| Profit margin | 40.23% |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 22 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
- Business activity Bank — FAIL on business activity Fail
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is just 8.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Pass
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.9% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 3.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity 73.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line. Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it gives us pause
At 6.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $4,812.50, below where it trades today.
| Forward P/E | 6.7x cheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 7.6x very cheap relative to earnings |
| Revenue growth | 16.3% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 40.2% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Return on equity | 18.1% a solid return on shareholder capital |
| Beta | 0.22 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $447.21T |
| Employees | 82,203 |
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Indonesia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
BBRI.JK trades on IDX (the company is based in Indonesia). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4055.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $3,200.00 | -10.0% | · | $900 | -10.0% |
| 2 months | $3,184.04 | -9.6% | $209.00 | $970 | -3.0% |
| 3 months | $3,353.10 | -14.1% | $209.00 | $921 | -7.9% |
| 6 months | $3,285.89 | -12.4% | $346.00 | $982 | -1.8% |
| 1 year | $3,756.59 | -23.3% | $346.00 | $859 | -14.1% |
| 2 years | $3,643.46 | -21.0% | $689.40 | $980 | -2.0% |
| 3 years | $4,263.78 | -32.5% | $1,008.40 | $912 | -8.8% |
| 5 years | $2,767.81 | +4.1% | $1,470.87 | $1,572 | +57.2% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.