2026-10-25
AXT, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
NAS100 29,709 +0.19%
S&P 7,737 +0.19%
GOLD $4,053 −0.54%
BTC $80,942 +0.17%
VIX 17.29 −1.31%
latest tape · as of 18:04 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
AXT, Inc.
AXTI · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $3.7B · 1,541 employees
AXT, Inc.
Not yet scored52.08 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price52.08 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans slightly to calls (put/call 0.94)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 52.08 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 56.01, over the last year.
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.94, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price52.08 USD
Fair value56.01
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-20Read Distribution57.91-10.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 40% slide in 16 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup97.18-46.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
AXT, Inc. holds its Distribution at $52.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days |
| Price at the screen | $52.08 |
| Valuation | 1,427.25 trailing · 25.37 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.86 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 14.94% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 14.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 33.92% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 33.9% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
AXT, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
AXT, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 15%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 1.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +79% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsSubstrates for 5G and lasers but losses keep mounting
Picture a supplier selling the polished wafers that power faster data links and 5G radios. Demand can surge when new networks roll out, yet AXT still posts a negative 15 percent profit margin and a negative 5 percent return on equity. Forward earnings sit at 58.9 times, a steep multiple for a firm that has yet to turn a sustained profit in a notoriously cyclical sector.
The 39 percent revenue jump looks impressive on the surface, and the ethical screen raises no flags. Four analysts still carry a buy rating with a median target near 94 dollars. None of that changes the fact that the business remains unprofitable at the bottom line while the industry swings between booms and sharp contractions.
High valuation on thin margins in a cyclical market leaves little room for error. Any slowdown in data-centre or 5G spending would quickly expose the lack of a proven moat. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 25.4xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 1,427.3xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.04 |
| EPS, forward | 2.25 |
| Revenue growth | +164.8%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 3.2%barely profitable |
| Return on equity | 1.0%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | -1.19% |
| Debt to equity | 0.11minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 4.77comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.86much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.17% |
| 52-week range | 4.81 - 143.16 |
| Market cap | $3.7B |
| Employees | 1,541 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeAXTI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Distribution $57.09
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Distribution $57.09
-1.4% Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Distribution · changed $57.91
-15.4% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-10-13
Markup $68.46
-16.3% Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 263% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-10-02
Markup $81.81
+2.4% Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 263% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- AXT (AXTI) Stock Trades At A Premium To Its Sales Base Yahoo Finance · 12d ago
- Rapidly Growing and Cheap, AXT Is a Top-Notch Data Center Play Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- AXT's Inventory Rises Sharply: Will Working Capital Pressure Grow? Yahoo Finance · 15d ago
- AXT Stock Fell 10% in a Day Even as Analysts More Than Doubled Their 2027 Revenue Estimates. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go Yahoo Finance · 19d ago
- AXTI Stock Rises 21% in a Month: Should You Buy, Sell or Hold? Yahoo Finance · 21d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
ACMRACM Research, Inc.
ACLSAxcelis Technologies, Inc.
KLICKulicke and Soffa Industries, Inc.
IPGPIPG Photonics Corporation
VECOVeeco Instruments Inc.
COHUCohu, Inc.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $125.81 | -30.1% | · | $699 | -30.1% |
| 2 months | $64.18 | +37.1% | · | $1,371 | +37.1% |
| 3 months | $46.73 | +88.3% | · | $1,883 | +88.3% |
| 6 months | $16.38 | +437.2% | · | $5,372 | +437.2% |
| 1 year | $1.94 | +4,435.6% | · | $45,356 | +4,435.6% |
| 2 years | $3.75 | +2,246.4% | · | $23,464 | +2,246.4% |
| 3 years | $3.74 | +2,252.7% | · | $23,527 | +2,252.7% |
| 5 years | $10.20 | +762.7% | · | $8,627 | +762.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AXTI does next, these words stay.
Membership
Thirteen thousand names carry this page. One desk keeps them honest.
Membership opens the full screen archive, the composites built from it, and the daily coverage that prices what the screen approves.
Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.