Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
AXT, Inc. holds its Distribution at $64.77. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$64.77
Valuation
2,159.00 trailing · 29.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
14.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 14.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Substrates for 5G and lasers but losses keep mounting
Picture a supplier selling the polished wafers that power faster data links and 5G radios. Demand can surge when new networks roll out, yet AXT still posts a negative 15 percent profit margin and a negative 5 percent return on equity. Forward earnings sit at 58.9 times, a steep multiple for a firm that has yet to turn a sustained profit in a notoriously cyclical sector.
The 39 percent revenue jump looks impressive on the surface, and the ethical screen raises no flags. Four analysts still carry a buy rating with a median target near 94 dollars. None of that changes the fact that the business remains unprofitable at the bottom line while the industry swings between booms and sharp contractions.
High valuation on thin margins in a cyclical market leaves little room for error. Any slowdown in data-centre or 5G spending would quickly expose the lack of a proven moat. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXTI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$75.17+63.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 63.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 263% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-22Markup$45.86-52.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 52.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 263% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Markup$97.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 263% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4436%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 54%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-03Markup$97.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$97.18Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
