An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Autohome Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $21.53
Autohome Inc. holds its Markup at $21.53.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days
Price
$21.53
Valuation
15.72 trailing · 14.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.22
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $21.19 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Read at
$21.53
15.72 P/E · 14.31 fwd
Our fair value
$21.19
2% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$20.00
-7% to current
Target low $17.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $22.30
▲ current $21.53 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$21.53
you are here
Conservative
$16.78
-22%
Analyst avg
$20.00
-7%
Our fair value
$21.19
-2%
Analyst high
$22.30
+4%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-27.90%
Profit margin
18.01%
Debt to equity
0.23
Analyst consensus
Hold · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its cash ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 2.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 871.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
China's Top Car Site Loses Ground Fast
Picture a Beijing driver hunting for a new car online. Autohome once owned that search, yet its revenue has fallen 28 percent while the market slowed. We pass because the business shows a weak moat, return on equity of just 4 percent and a forward multiple of 14.3 times that offers no real margin of safety at the current price.
The numbers tell a clear story of contraction rather than opportunity. Profit margins sit at 18 percent but top-line decline and thin returns on equity point to structural pressure in a market the company no longer dominates. Eleven analysts rate the shares a hold with a median target below the current level, underlining limited upside.
Cash ratio failure on the ethical screen rules the name out regardless of valuation. Currency and regulatory exposure in China add further uncertainty that a low growth profile cannot offset. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ATHM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 30.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Distribution$21.53+30.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 30.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Distribution$16.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
