Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.35 USD
Fair value15.22
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown19.64-1.5% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Distribution20.65-6.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation22.09-12.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Acadia Realty Trust holds its Markdown at $19.35. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 312 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 312 days
Price at the screen
$19.35
Valuation
55.29 trailing · 56.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.71%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.77%
Below 5%
5.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Paying Top Dollar For Shrinking Retail Rents
Picture a landlord raising the rent on shops that are already losing customers. Acadia Realty Trust owns street retail in busy US corridors, yet revenue is sliding one percent a year while the shares trade at eighty times forward earnings, far above our fair value of thirteen dollars against the current twenty two.
We pass because nothing in the numbers supports the price. Profit margins sit at eleven percent, return on equity is only four percent, and the market still hands it a strong buy label with a twenty four dollar target. That gap between what the business earns and what investors are asked to pay is simply too wide.
Retail property values move with consumer spending and interest rates, so any slowdown could hit income harder than the high multiple allows. Ethical checks clear, yet the valuation leaves no margin for error.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AKR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$19.64-4.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-21Accumulation$22.46+1.7%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Accumulation$22.09+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-17Accumulation$22.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Accumulation$22.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$22.09Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
