An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Colgate-Palmolive Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells consumer products in the United States and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $92.98
Colgate-Palmolive holds its Accumulation at $92.98.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 6 days
Price
$92.98
Valuation
36.04 trailing · 22.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.32
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 18.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $90.31 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 8.40% revenue growth.
Read at
$92.98
36.04 P/E · 22.92 fwd
Our fair value
$90.31
3% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$99.50
+7% to current
Target low $80.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $110.00
▲ current $92.98 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$92.98
you are here
Conservative
$72.00
-23%
Analyst avg
$99.50
+7%
Our fair value
$90.31
-3%
Analyst high
$110.00
+18%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
8.40%
Profit margin
10.04%
Debt to equity
1,640.54
Analyst consensus
Buy · 20 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Colgate's Toothpaste Empire Trips on Debt
Millions reach for Colgate each morning without thinking twice, yet the numbers show a business trading above its worth with a forward multiple of 22.9 times earnings against fair value of 90.31 while the share price sits at 92.98. Revenue growth of 8 percent and a 10 percent profit margin look steady, but the eye watering 364 percent ROE points straight to heavy leverage rather than pure operating strength. We pass because the price offers no margin of safety and the ethical screen flags the debt ratio outright.
A moderate moat in oral care and pet nutrition gives some durability, yet that does not offset the balance sheet concern or the thin cushion versus our calculated value. Twenty analysts may cluster around a 100 target and a buy rating, but our screen exists to filter out exactly these leverage risks before they become tomorrow's problem.
High debt leaves the company exposed if rates stay elevated or consumer spending softens, turning a seemingly defensive name into a less stable proposition than the label suggests. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CL trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$88.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 0%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03Accumulation$88.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$88.58Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.