Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.06 USD
Fair value22.50
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Distribution16.35-7.9% to today ✓
2026-08-28Read Markdown16.35-7.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. holds its Distribution at $15.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$15.06
Valuation
10.94 trailing · 8.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
59.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 59.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.12%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 49.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast fashion looks cheap until debt piles up
Walk into any mall and the racks at American Eagle still draw crowds hunting for a deal. The numbers show revenue up 10 percent with a forward P/E of 8.8 times and an 18 percent ROE, yet the opportunity rating sits at none because the ethical screen fails outright on the debt ratio. We pass for that reason alone.
The moderate moat and modest 5 percent profit margin suggest a workable but unexceptional business in a cyclical sector. Ten analysts hold a median target only slightly above the current price, which lines up with a market that sees limited upside rather than a mispriced gem.
Low multiples on consumer cyclicals often mask peak earnings rather than signal bargains, and the debt issue simply rules out any further look. The combination leaves nothing compelling on either the numbers or the ethics screen.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 18
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 17
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 16
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Distribution$17.39+6.4%Entry 15
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Distribution$16.35+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Distribution$16.35+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Distribution$16.35+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Distribution$16.35+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markdown$16.35+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.