The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial 8316.T
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.
read at $6,406.00
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial holds its Markup at $6,406.00.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · screen not yet scored
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 3 days |
| Price | $6,406.00 |
| Valuation | 15.55 trailing · 20.16 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 30.0 |
| Beta | 0.40 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $4,655.15 fair value estimate.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
| Profit margin | 26.13% |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 12 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
- Business activity Bank — FAIL on business activity Fail
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Pass
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 24.7% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 0.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity 46.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line. Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it gives us pause
At 20.2x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 27% above our $4,655.15 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
| Forward P/E | 20.2x a premium valuation |
| Trailing P/E | 15.6x reasonably valued |
| Profit margin | 26.1% healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 9.8% a modest return on shareholder capital |
| Beta | 0.40 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $24.42T |
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
8316.T trades on TSE (the company is based in Japan). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $5,661.00 | +10.0% | · | $1,100 | +10.0% |
| 2 months | $5,536.00 | +12.5% | · | $1,125 | +12.5% |
| 3 months | $5,076.39 | +22.7% | $79.00 | $1,242 | +24.2% |
| 6 months | $4,898.11 | +27.1% | $79.00 | $1,287 | +28.7% |
| 1 year | $3,507.68 | +77.5% | $157.00 | $1,820 | +82.0% |
| 2 years | $3,224.96 | +93.1% | $279.00 | $2,017 | +101.7% |
| 3 years | $1,733.88 | +259.1% | $369.00 | $3,804 | +280.4% |
| 5 years | $1,060.68 | +487.1% | $519.00 | $6,360 | +536.0% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.