Pre-Asia: Risk-Off Tone, Crude at $96, and NFP on Deck

Risk-Off Tone, Crude at $96, and NFP on Deck

Asia opens into a confirmed risk-off session. ISM Services triggered the US selloff. Russell 2000 (IWM) led down 1.35%. Crude broke above $96 for the first time this cycle. Fear and Greed flipped from Greed to Neutral in one afternoon. The Pre-NY brief called it at 68% risk. Both confirmed by close.

Asia Setup

Nikkei 225: USD/JPY at 160.05 makes the Bank of Japan uncomfortable. Crude at $96 hits Japanese importers directly. Watch for intervention chatter above 160.50.

Hang Seng: DXY strength at 99.53 is a headwind for HKD-pegged assets. Path of least resistance is down unless China provides a catalyst.

ASX 200: Energy stocks see $96 crude as a tailwind. Broader index follows US risk-off. Expect a split: energy up, everything else under pressure. AUD/USD caught between commodity support and dollar strength.

Thursday Events

AVGO / CRWD / PANW earnings after US close Thursday. If Broadcom beats on AI spend, Nasdaq gaps up Friday. If it misses, tech loses its Wednesday safe-haven status.

NFP Friday 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET. The week ends with the defining number. Hot = Fed stays higher. Soft = relief rally window opens. Thursday is the waiting room.

NFP 24 hours away. Sentiment just flipped. This is not the time to build new positions. Capital preservation is the edge. Smaller size, wider stops, or wait for confirmation after earnings.

This briefing is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing constitutes financial advice. All trading carries risk including loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Capital at risk.