Monte Carlo Probability
10,000-simulation Monte Carlo analysis across 4,417 instruments. Each simulation projects a 30-day price path using historical drift and volatility. The result: probability-weighted outcome ranges that quantify upside/downside likelihood — not certainty.
4,417
Instruments
4,417
60%+ Prob Gain
4,417
70%+ Prob Gain
4,417
80%+ Prob Gain
What Monte Carlo simulation shows: By running thousands of randomised price paths using each instrument's own volatility and drift profile, we produce a distribution of outcomes. The P10 bound is the realistic downside (90% of paths ended above this). The P90 bound is the realistic upside. Prob Positive = percentage of simulations ending above today's price after 30 days.
Highest Probability-of-Gain — Top 25 (30-Day)
| Ticker | Prob Positive | Median | P10 Downside | P90 Upside | Prob +10% | Prob +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WISEX | 87.2% | +0.51 | -0.07 | +1.11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MANE | 86.5% | +46.77 | -6.53 | +127.28 | 79.6% | 72.3% |
| SNDK | 85.2% | +42.48 | -7.86 | +120.42 | 77.7% | 69.6% |
| SHAZ | 83.1% | +46.41 | -11.95 | +142.83 | 76.2% | 69.1% |
| SUNC | 83.0% | +7.24 | -2.38 | +18.03 | 36.2% | 6.6% |
| 285A.T | 82.9% | +36.17 | -9.85 | +107.12 | 74.2% | 65.1% |
| OXLCZ | 81.2% | +1.01 | -0.44 | +2.46 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| CM | 80.1% | +5.97 | -2.92 | +15.38 | 28.8% | 3.2% |
| RWAYL | 79.5% | +0.96 | -0.54 | +2.48 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FPS | 79.2% | +23.78 | -11.92 | +76.91 | 67.2% | 54.0% |
| DU.AE | 78.9% | +5.80 | -3.39 | +15.86 | 29.0% | 3.7% |
| 009150.KS | 78.3% | +15.30 | -8.38 | +46.13 | 60.6% | 41.2% |
| TD | 78.3% | +4.90 | -3.11 | +13.30 | 21.4% | 1.2% |
| OXLCP | 78.2% | +1.15 | -0.75 | +3.05 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TRINZ | 78.2% | +1.00 | -0.62 | +2.66 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| FEML.L | 77.5% | +4.66 | -3.03 | +12.67 | 19.5% | 0.9% |
| CDNL | 77.4% | +23.96 | -13.94 | +79.26 | 65.8% | 54.6% |
| STX | 77.2% | +14.32 | -9.04 | +43.44 | 58.7% | 39.5% |
| ELVR | 77.0% | +24.84 | -15.87 | +84.54 | 66.8% | 55.3% |
| BK | 76.8% | +5.87 | -4.14 | +16.86 | 30.9% | 4.9% |
| ESLT | 76.6% | +9.48 | -6.68 | +28.41 | 48.6% | 23.2% |
| BTI | 76.4% | +5.53 | -4.12 | +15.98 | 28.6% | 4.1% |
| CIEN | 76.4% | +15.60 | -10.84 | +51.46 | 60.1% | 42.8% |
| AMAPX | 76.2% | +0.55 | -0.42 | +1.50 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| LGN | 76.0% | +19.46 | -13.71 | +65.90 | 62.7% | 49.4% |
Narrowest Confidence Intervals — Most Predictable Names
Tighter P10-P90 range = lower outcome dispersion = more consistent simulation results.
| Ticker | P10 Lower | P90 Upper | Prob Positive | Range Width % |
|---|
Data as of 05 Jun 2026 15:02 UTC. Monte Carlo outputs are probabilistic model outputs based on historical price behaviour. They do not predict future prices. Not financial advice.