GFL · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $15.0B · 15,000 employees
GFL Environmental Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
41.50 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-01
Screened 2026-09-01 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
GFL Environmental Inc holds its Markup at $41.50. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-01
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$41.50
Valuation
N/A trailing · 46.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.45%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bins emptied daily yet returns stay thin
Think of the trucks that rumble through every suburb before dawn. GFL collects the waste others ignore, yet the business earns just 3 percent margins and 3 percent ROE on narrow competitive ground. At 41 times forward earnings and 5 percent revenue growth the shares sit 10 percent above our fair value with none of the margin of safety required.
We pass for straightforward arithmetic. The price already bakes in optimism the numbers do not support, and a narrow moat offers little protection if volumes soften or costs rise.
Analyst targets sit higher still, but history shows waste firms can trade at premium multiples right before earnings normalise. Currency moves across Canada and the US add another layer of noise. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GFL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markdown · changed$41.65+6.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$39.15+8.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.97+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.97+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.97Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
