Weibo Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a social media platform for people to create, discover, and distribute content in the People's Republic of China.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
6.61 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Weibo Corporation holds its Markdown at $6.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$6.61
Valuation
5.46 trailing · 5.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.50%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
38.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 38.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
6.65%
Below 5%
6.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China's Microblog Giant Sits Cheap but Unloved
Every time a commuter in Beijing scrolls through trending topics or a small merchant pays to reach local eyes, the activity flows through Weibo's ad engine and value-added tools. The platform still pulls solid 21% profit margins on modest 6% revenue growth, and the shares sit at 5.2 times forward earnings with a 43% gap to our fair value.
Yet the opportunity rating stays none. Return on equity of just 10% and an unknown moat signal limited ability to compound capital over time, while sixteen analysts see only modest upside to a nine-dollar median target. Ethical screens clear, but the numbers do not point to a durable edge worth backing.
China policy shifts and currency moves remain the clearest threats, and low multiples on slow-growing earnings have often proved a trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WB trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markdown · changed$6.61-14.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-08-16Accumulation · changed$7.76+1.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Markdown$7.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markdown$7.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$7.64Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
