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The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.
THG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.8B · 4,900 employees
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various property and casualty insurance products and services for individuals and businesses in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
224.01 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $224.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$224.01
Valuation
10.72 trailing · 11.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance cover trips the ethical line here
Picture a broker in Boston settling a storm claim for a small business. The money moves, the policy renews, yet the whole sector sits on our prohibited list from the start. We pass without running the rest of the numbers.
The shares trade at 11.4 times forward earnings with 6 percent revenue growth, an 11 percent profit margin and 22 percent return on equity. Analyst targets sit near current levels and the margin of safety is thin. None of that matters once the ethical screen has already ruled the name out.
Cyclical insurance earnings can look steady until a bad weather year or reserve hit arrives, and the low multiple offers no protection against that swing. Currency and catastrophe exposure add further uncertainty on top of the ethical block.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
THG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206.
2026-08-14Markup$231.46+17.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206.
2026-07-18Markup$197.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $206.
2026-07-03Markup$197.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$197.65Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.