Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.16, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.22 USD
Fair value9.72
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation12.35-1.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-14Read Markdown12.43-1.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 7% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Accumulation13.39-8.7% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TransAlta Corporation holds its Markup at $12.22. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 188 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 188 days
Price at the screen
$12.22
Valuation
N/A trailing · 30.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.48
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
50.14%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 50.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.62%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.12%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
TransAlta's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 50% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when TAC's ethical verdict changes
Today TAC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Canadian power firm priced far above value
Picture a utility selling electricity from hydro dams and wind farms across Alberta while posting shrinking revenue and deepening losses. TransAlta shows exactly that picture today. Revenue fell 26 percent, profit margins sit at negative 8 percent, and return on equity is negative 11 percent. The shares trade at 34 times forward earnings against our fair value of 8.34 dollars, a 37 percent premium that leaves no margin of safety and earns a none rating.
We pass because the numbers do not support the price. Two analysts still say buy with a 13 dollar median target, yet the business is contracting and unprofitable. An ethical screen pass removes one objection, but valuation and fundamentals remain decisive.
The main risk is that negative growth persists while the market continues to ignore the gap between price and value. Utilities can face regulatory and weather swings that widen losses further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TAC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Accumulation$12.97+2.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-18Accumulation$12.66+2.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-02Markdown$12.22-3.3%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-09-14Markdown$12.64+1.7%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-08-14Markdown · changed$12.43-7.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Accumulation$13.39+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Accumulation$13.39+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$13.39Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
