Progress Software Corporation provides software products that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applications and digital experiences in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
45.22 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-27
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Progress Software Corporation holds its Distribution at $45.22. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 90 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 90 days
Price at the screen
$45.22
Valuation
21.95 trailing · 7.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.18%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 38.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Low growth leaves Progress Software on the shelf
Every firm wants its apps to feel smart these days, yet Progress Software sells the tools that help build those AI driven experiences. The business clears our ethical screen and sits on a forward multiple of just 6.5 times, with a 19 percent return on equity and a 40 percent gap to our fair value estimate. Still the opportunity rating stays at none because revenue is rising only 7 percent a year and the moat remains unknown.
That combination of modest growth and an unclear edge keeps us on the sidelines even though profit margins sit at 9 percent and six analysts see little upside beyond 46 dollars. We look for clearer signs that the software can compound over time rather than simply look inexpensive today.
Risk sits around the unknown durability of its products in a crowded AI market and the chance that slow top line expansion turns the low multiple into a trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PRGS trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-08-09Markup$40.55+28.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 28.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-18Markup$31.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-07-03Markup$31.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$31.47Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
