MGY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.4B · 262 employees
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, development, exploration, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the United States.
Screened 2026-08-25 · the tape above runs as of 16:37 UTC · 29 Aug · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation holds its Markup at $26.44. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-25
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$26.44
Valuation
11.55 trailing · 8.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
14.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 14.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Wells and Swinging Prices Rarely Reward Buyers
Every time crude prices spike, an independent producer like this sees cash flow jump, yet Magnolia sits right at our fair value with a negative margin of safety. Revenue growth of just 2 percent and an 11.2 times forward multiple look tempting on the surface, but this is exactly the cyclical value trap where peak earnings flatter a low multiple and leave investors exposed when prices normalise.
The business earns a solid 24 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity, and it clears our ethical screen without issue. Seventeen analysts still rate the shares a buy with a median target of 32 dollars, yet none of that offsets the structural lack of growth or the unknown competitive edge in a crowded shale patch.
Risk sits in the commodity swings and modest production outlook that could erase any apparent discount quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MGY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-05Markup · changed$25.71-6.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$27.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Distribution$27.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$27.62Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
