Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.15, read 2026-10-23
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price27.61 USD
Fair value39.83
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown29.64-6.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-30Read Accumulation29.69-7.0% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-07-30Read Distribution30.24-8.7% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
MDA Space Ltd. holds its Markdown at $27.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 48 days
Price at the screen
$27.61
Valuation
49.30 trailing · 18.53 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
MDA Space does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +79% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space Dreams Fail Before Numbers Even Matter
Picture a satellite beaming broadband to a remote village. It sounds like progress until the same technology feeds defence contracts that our screen rules out on principle. MDA Space hits that wall immediately, so we pass regardless of any modest valuation gap.
Revenue sits flat, margins scrape just 2 percent and the forward multiple stretches to 25.7 times. Those figures already signal thin returns for a business with no clear moat, yet the ethical breach alone ends the discussion before any deeper look.
Cyclical aerospace spending and shifting government budgets add further uncertainty on top of the low growth. The consensus target may sit higher, but none of it overrides the core prohibition. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MDA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$28.10-1.7%Entry 6
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-18Markdown$28.58-3.6%Entry 5
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$29.64+0.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-10-02Accumulation$29.64-0.2%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-30Distribution$30.24Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.