Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
ExxonMobil holds its Accumulation at $160.66. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 280 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 280 days
Price at the screen
$160.66
Valuation
20.68 trailing · 14.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 93.7
Beta
0.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.06%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.34%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for energy operations and corporate relationships connected to Israeli energy infrastructure and resource extraction. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $130.56 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 44.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Giants, Big Profits, Big Risks
Imagine the heart of the global energy industry, pumping crude oil and natural gas through its veins - that's ExxonMobil. Operating in the cyclical world of oil and gas, it's a business that swings with the price of oil, and right now, its revenue is growing by a hefty 44%. This is why it stands out; it's performing well amidst a volatile energy market, and with a forward P/E of 15.6x, the market is pricing ExxonMobil at a discount compared to our fair value of $130.11, offering a margin of safety of -22%.
However, risk is not a stranger to ExxonMobil. The cyclical nature of the industry means that the current 9% profit margin and 13% return on equity could be masking a peak earnings scenario - a classic value trap. The narrow moat indicates a limited competitive advantage, and while 22 analysts rate it a buy with a median target of $170, the ethical screen does pass, suggesting that despite the profits, there's a level of responsibility in their operations.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XOM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markdown · changed$166.15+5.9%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-07-31Accumulation$156.94+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$156.94+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$156.94+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$156.94+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$156.94+6.5%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$149.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-07-03Markup$149.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (94). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
