Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.23, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price76.83 USD
Fair value115.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation75.93+1.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-21Read Distribution75.93+1.2% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-09-15Read Markdown79.89-3.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-15Read Distribution87.89-12.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Textron holds its Accumulation at $76.83. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 61 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 61 days
Price at the screen
$76.83
Valuation
14.30 trailing · 10.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Textron does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TXT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 50% discount to our $115.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 49.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Textron trips on defence work before numbers matter
Textron keeps Bell helicopters and Cessna jets moving through government and corporate hands every year. We pass because the business activity screen rules out any stake on ethical grounds, full stop.
Revenue climbs 12 percent yet the 6 percent profit margin and 12 percent ROE sit behind a narrow moat. The 12.6 times forward multiple and 26 percent gap to fair value cannot override that hard block.
Defence cycles add their own swings while 16 analysts still push a 100 dollar target. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TXT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$76.83+1.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$75.93+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$75.93+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$75.93+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$75.93+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$75.93+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$75.93+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $99.
2026-10-14Markdown$74.16-4.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
