An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East,…
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $415.17
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing holds its Accumulation at $415.17.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-05-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 282 days
Price
$415.17
Valuation
35.13 trailing · 21.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 50.0
Beta
1.26
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards — business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads FAIR VALUE — it trades above our $313.24 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 35.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$415.17
35.13 P/E · 21.22 fwd
Our fair value
$313.24
25% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$463.45
+12% to current
Target low $351.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $600.00
▲ current $415.17 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$415.17
you are here
Conservative
$313.24
-25%
Analyst avg
$463.45
+12%
Our fair value
$313.24
-25%
Analyst high
$600.00
+45%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
35.10%
Profit margin
46.50%
Debt to equity
0.17
Analyst consensus
None · 18 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business — a strong moat and 47% profit margins. At today's price it sits 25% above our $313.24 fair value — priced for the quality, not a bargain.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Taiwan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TSM trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Taiwan). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-07-16Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-05Accumulation$415.17Entry 3
5 July 2026 — $415.17 — ACCUMULATION (state model: sideways, 282 days). Journal opened. The quiet season on the irreplaceable company: quality 92, forward 21 times, discount geopolitical not financial. Tensions on file: values pass with zero headroom at 50; insider VP raised stake 18% late June. Watch: the nine-month range edges, the screen line, fab geography.
2026-07-03Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$415.17Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
