An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $207.82
Phillips 66 holds its Markup at $207.82.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 262 days
Price
$207.82
Valuation
20.56 trailing · 10.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.9
Beta
0.68
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY — it trades above our $183.68 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 6.90% revenue growth.
Read at
$207.82
20.56 P/E · 10.95 fwd
Our fair value
$183.68
12% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$207.00
-0% to current
Target low $138.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $240.00
▲ current $207.82 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$207.82
you are here
Conservative
$124.20
-40%
Analyst avg
$207.00
-0%
Our fair value
$183.68
-12%
Analyst high
$240.00
+15%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
6.90%
Profit margin
3.07%
Debt to equity
91.39
Analyst consensus
Buy · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 26.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money. Against market value it is 32.7%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 14.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Refining margins look tempting until they vanish
Picture a petrol station forecourt where pump prices swing with every tanker that docks. Phillips 66 sits right in that chain, turning crude into fuel and chemicals across five segments. It trades at 11.5 times forward earnings with 7 percent revenue growth and 15 percent ROE, numbers that appear attractive on the surface.
The business passes our ethical screen and draws buy ratings from most analysts. Yet refining is a classic cyclical activity where earnings peak just as multiples compress. A weak moat and 3 percent profit margin leave little cushion when demand or feedstock costs turn.
Our fair value sits 14 percent below the current price. That gap, combined with the risk of peak-cycle earnings, points to a value trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
PSX trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$206.86+13.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$183.08Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
