Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Phillips 66 holds its Accumulation at $259.14. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$259.14
Valuation
14.79 trailing · 12.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 79.9
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
15.75%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 15.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.11%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $206.97 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 53.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 20.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Refining margins look tempting until they vanish
Picture a petrol station forecourt where pump prices swing with every tanker that docks. Phillips 66 sits right in that chain, turning crude into fuel and chemicals across five segments. It trades at 11.5 times forward earnings with 7 percent revenue growth and 15 percent ROE, numbers that appear attractive on the surface.
The business passes our ethical screen and draws buy ratings from most analysts. Yet refining is a classic cyclical activity where earnings peak just as multiples compress. A weak moat and 3 percent profit margin leave little cushion when demand or feedstock costs turn.
Our fair value sits 14 percent below the current price. That gap, combined with the risk of peak-cycle earnings, points to a value trap rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PSX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187.
2026-07-24Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$206.86+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$206.86+13.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $187. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Markup$183.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
