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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Johnson Controls
JCI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $95.9B · 87,000 employees
Johnson Controls International plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in engineering, manufacturing, commissioning, and retrofitting building products and systems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, a…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.46, read 2026-10-29
Ethical passes the values gate
Price158.27 USD
Fair value118.03
Ethical score85.6/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution147.63+7.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since August
2026-10-21Read Markup147.63+7.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 6% slide in 7 days
2026-10-14Read Accumulation157.44+0.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markup150.20+5.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Johnson Controls holds its Markup at $158.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$158.27
Valuation
33.53 trailing · 21.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.6
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Johnson Controls clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today JCI passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $118.03 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Office towers mask a stretched building stock
Picture a contractor quoting on a new headquarters. Every pipe, sensor and chiller has to work across borders and building codes. Johnson Controls sits in that chain, yet investors are paying 24.4 times forward earnings for 8 percent revenue growth and a 14 percent profit margin.
The shares sit 28 percent above our fair value of 101.85 dollars. A moderate moat and 13 percent return on equity do not justify the premium when the market already prices in steady expansion. We therefore pass.
The real hazard is the cycle. Construction spending can flatten fast, and a high multiple paid at peak demand often turns into a value trap once orders slow. Currency moves and project delays add further pressure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
JCI trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$147.63-6.2%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$150.20+4.9%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-08-29Distribution$143.16-0.1%Entry 12
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151.
2026-07-28Distribution$143.37+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$143.37+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$143.37+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$143.37+2.1%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$140.46+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $151. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
