NAS10031,106−0.38%S&P7,801−0.23%GOLD$4,137−1.19%BTC$83,386−2.54%VIX15.11+0.67%live tape · as of 19:05 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Expeditors International
EXPD · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $24.5B · 20,361 employees
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
188.58 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-28 · not a live quote Last reviewed 9 days ago
Screened 2026-09-28 · the tape above runs as of 19:05 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 188.58 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 169.59, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price188.58 USD
Fair value169.59
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown188.58+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup160.44+17.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Expeditors International holds its Markup at $188.58. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$188.58
Valuation
27.49 trailing · 23.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
68.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 68.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Expeditors International's business is fine, but its receivables are about 68% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $169.59 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 32.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Logistics firm priced for flawless execution
Picture a freight forwarder threading containers through ports and customs in a dozen time zones. Expeditors built a solid niche doing exactly that, yet the shares sit 32 percent above our fair value with a forward multiple of 26 times on just 4 percent revenue growth. The narrow moat and 37 percent ROE look attractive on paper, but the market already pays up for both while the ethical screen flags serious issues in accounts receivable.
We pass because the valuation leaves no margin for the modest growth on offer and because the ethical failure on receivables cannot be ignored. Consensus targets sit well below the current price, and the business sits in a cyclical sector where earnings peaks often coincide with peak multiples that later compress.
The combination of stretched pricing, limited top line momentum and the governance red flag makes this one to skip. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EXPD trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$188.58+0.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-08-28Markup$187.81+2.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-28Markup$182.80+13.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-18Markup$160.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-03Markup$160.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$160.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
