Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price246.20 GBp
Fair value123.10
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markup246.20+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-23Read Accumulation204.53+20.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution204.53+20.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
B&M European Value Retail holds its Markup at $246.20. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 26 days
Price at the screen
$246.20
Valuation
984.80 trailing · 1,123.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio 64.1%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
64.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 64.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
5.42%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.42%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
B&M European Value Retail's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 64% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-08. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $123.10 fair value estimate, 4.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in GBp, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 1,123.2x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 50% above our $123.10 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
3.49heavy leverage: higher risk if revenue softens
Market cap
$1.7B
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BME.L trades on LSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markup · changed$246.20+20.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $209.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $209.
2026-07-23Distribution$204.53+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $209.
2026-07-18Distribution$204.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $209.
2026-07-03Distribution$204.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$204.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.