Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-29
Options put/call open interest 0.17, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price144.35 USD
Fair value181.14
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Distribution136.73+5.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 10% rise in 8 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markup124.09+16.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 12 days
2026-08-13Read Distribution134.78+7.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup151.02-4.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Semtech Corporation holds its Distribution at $144.35. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 153 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 153 days
Price at the screen
$144.35
Valuation
90.55 trailing · 23.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
2.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.35%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.24%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Semtech clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 4%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SMTC's ethical verdict changes
Today SMTC passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +45% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Signal chips grow fast yet stay unprofitable
Think of the tiny chips that keep factory sensors and network towers talking without noise. Semtech supplies them, and revenue is rising 16 percent. Still, the firm reports a 3 percent loss margin and negative 6 percent return on equity, with only a weak moat around its products. Forward earnings sit at 32 times despite current losses, and our fair value shows just an 11 percent margin of safety at the current price.
Analysts see strong buy potential with a 202 dollar median target, yet those forecasts rest on future profits that have not yet appeared. The ethical screen clears, but the combination of thin returns and limited competitive protection leaves little reason to step in.
The main risk is that growth stays expensive while larger chip makers encroach on the same sockets. Peak cycle earnings can look cheap on a low multiple only to fall when demand cools. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SMTC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$136.73+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 27.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-10-14Markup$187.30+7.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-10-02Markup$174.78+40.8%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 40.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130. Since the last review it dropped out of the Tech 100.
2026-08-25Markup · changed$124.09+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Distribution$124.09+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Distribution$124.09-7.9%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-18Markup$151.02+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 266%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (13 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $130.
2026-07-03Markup$151.02+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
