Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited develops, owns, and operates casino gaming and resort facilities in Macau, the Philippines, Cyprus, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.21 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited holds its Markdown at $5.21. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$5.21
Valuation
8.83 trailing · 7.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 67.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casinos Might Look Cheap But Ethics Say No
Picture a gambler chasing a hot streak in Macau. The tables are busy again and revenue is climbing 11 percent, yet the ethical screen flags the entire casino sector as off limits for us. That single rule overrides any spreadsheet appeal and keeps us on the sidelines regardless of the numbers.
The shares trade at a forward multiple of 6.7 times earnings with a 4 percent profit margin and an analyst target around 8 dollars. Our own fair value sits higher at 10 dollars, but the opportunity rating stays at none because the ethical fail is absolute and the business sits inside a heavily cyclical industry.
Low multiples in resorts and casinos often signal peak earnings rather than bargains, and currency swings plus regulatory risk in Asia add further volatility. Profitability remains thin even after the recovery. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Hong Kong and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MLCO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Hong Kong). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$5.48-1.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-08-05Accumulation$5.58+1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Accumulation$5.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Accumulation$5.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$5.50Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
