Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.80, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price109.34 USD
Fair value115.41
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-03Read Distribution110.54-1.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown118.05-7.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution118.05-7.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Markdown124.81-12.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. holds its Distribution at $109.34. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 82 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 82 days
Price at the screen
$109.34
Valuation
18.47 trailing · 16.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: casino
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Monarch Casino & Resort, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in gambling, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when MCRI's ethical verdict changes
Today MCRI does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 5% discount to our $115.41 fair value, 4.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $115.41, with a range of $102.60 to $132.72, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Casinos tempt with steady returns but ethics block the door
Step into a Reno casino on a busy weekend and the chips clatter while the slots ring. Monarch runs two solid properties and posts a 20% profit margin with 9% revenue growth. Yet the ethical screen flags the whole sector as off-limits, so the numbers never get a proper look in.
The shares trade at 17.5 times forward earnings with almost no margin of safety to our fair value. Analyst targets sit below the current price and the opportunity rating is none. Strong returns on equity do not change the fact that we simply do not engage once the screen has spoken.
Cyclical demand can swing hard when travel slows or regulation tightens. Currency and local competition add further uncertainty on top of the ethical bar. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCRI trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-27Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$115.84+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$115.84-1.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $114. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
