Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.32, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price532.57 USD
Fair value651.99
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Distribution535.60-0.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since October
2026-10-24Read Markup535.60-0.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-22Read Distribution535.60-0.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-10-18Read Markup535.60-0.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cavco Industries, Inc. holds its Distribution at $532.57. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 100 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 100 days
Price at the screen
$532.57
Valuation
23.45 trailing · 18.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.27
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.80%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.73%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Cavco Industries, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CVCO's ethical verdict changes
Today CVCO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 22% discount to our $651.99 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Modular Homes Look Cheap but Cycles Bite
Every time a buyer orders a factory-built home in the American southwest, Cavco captures the sale. Yet the business sits squarely in a consumer cyclical sector where demand evaporates when borrowing costs climb or confidence slips. We pass despite the modest revenue growth and ethical clearance because the underlying exposure to housing cycles outweighs any surface appeal.
Forward earnings sit at 19.3 times with an 8 percent top-line rise and 8 percent profit margins. Return on equity reaches 18 percent behind a moderate moat, and analysts cluster around a 600 target. None of that changes the fact that peak-cycle multiples in this industry often signal trouble rather than opportunity.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap: earnings look steady today, the multiple does not scream expensive, yet any downturn in home orders quickly compresses both the top line and the valuation. A 10 percent margin of safety offers little cushion when volumes turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CVCO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Distribution$532.57-1.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$539.21+0.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$535.60+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$535.60+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup · changed$535.60+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$535.60+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$535.60-1.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
