Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Amazon holds its Markdown at $256.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$256.97
Valuation
20.67 trailing · 24.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.0
Beta
1.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.89%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $275.70 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 19.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 60 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Online Giant's Fair Value on the Horizon
Imagine browsing online for the perfect sofa, and Amazon's vast array of options is the virtual furniture store. Its ever-growing presence in our digital lives has made it a behemoth in e-commerce. Amazon's revenue growth is a robust 20%, and its profit margin stands at a healthy 17%, all contributing to a ROE of 31%. What makes Amazon stand out is not just its scale but also its ability to innovate and expand into new markets, from cloud computing to grocery.
However, with a forward P/E of 25.0x, our analysis suggests that Amazon's current stock price is slightly overvalued compared to our fair value estimate of $275.20, which offers a modest margin of safety of +6%. Despite the strong consensus from 60 analysts with a median target of $325, the stock's current valuation reflects high expectations that may already be priced in.
While Amazon passes our ethical screen, investors should be aware of the risks associated with its cyclical nature. As a consumer cyclical company, a low P/E during peak earnings could indicate a cyclical value trap. Given its current valuation and the cyclical nature of the business, the prudent investor might seek opportunities with a more substantial margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMZN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Markup · changed$260.11+12.1%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-30Distribution$232.11+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$232.11+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$232.11+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$232.11+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$232.11-6.1%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$247.23+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$247.23+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$247.23+0.5%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
