Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 0.80, read 2026-10-30
Ethical passes the values gate
Price240.35 USD
Fair value278.49
Ethical score85.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup254.76-5.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-27Read Distribution254.76-5.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-10-24Read Markup254.76-5.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-11Read Accumulation249.67-3.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Every chart read we post on this name lands here. Each one says which way we lean, how firmly, and the line that would prove us wrong. When price settles a read, we add a new entry and say plainly how it went.
Entries are point-in-time and never edited. Times in UTC. Not advice.
31 Oct06:39 UTC
OutcomeDaily chartWrong
Settles the daily read of 28 Oct, 08:59 UTC. Thursday 29 Oct closed at 243.79, under the 246.45 range floor. Low 229.36 after the report, Friday 240.35. See that read ↓
Update on Amazon. The range read was wrong. Thursday closed at 243.79, under 246.45, and 244.30 and the 243 area went with it. After the report it traded down to 229.36 and closed Friday at 240.35. Now 246.45 is the lid. A daily close back over it would put the old range back in charge. Was Friday's bounce off 229 the low? Not financial advice.
28 Oct10:13 UTC
OutcomeDaily chartHeld
Settles the daily read of 25 Oct, 03:27 UTC. 248 held on the closes. Monday poked to 247.23 and closed back at 249.09. See that read ↓
↔
Sideways · slight, still inside the box
Wrong if two daily closes land outside 248.00 to 265.34.
Line248
Mon low247.23
Mon close249.09
Tue close253.10
Box top265.34
Sunday I said I'd look for a long near 248 if it held. Monday poked to 247.23, a dollar under, and closed back at 249.09, then Tuesday finished at 253.10. So 248 held on the closes. It's still inside the 248 to 265.34 box. Let's see if it pushes toward the top or comes back to test 248 once more. Not advice.
Chart as posted, 28 Oct 10:13 UTC. Daily candles to the 27 Oct close.
28 Oct08:59 UTC
ReadDaily chartWrong
AMZN at 253.10 in a range into 29 Oct earnings, which way?
↔
Sideways · moderate
Wrong if a daily close lands outside 246.45 to 265.34.
Range top265.34
Range bottom246.45
Next up267.56
Next down244.30
Earnings29 Oct
AMZN closed Tuesday at 253.10, in a range since the 265.34 high on 20 Oct. The bottom of the range is 246.45, the 23 Oct low. Price is sitting on its 20-day (254.90) and 50-day (255.21) averages, over its 200-day at 243.34, and about 12% under the 287.20 high from 3 Aug. The weekly chart is up but slow, so there is no strong lean either way.
Risk event: earnings are expected tomorrow, 29 Oct (yfinance estimate). The result can move price through the whole range in one gap, so the levels below are the ones to watch after it.
If it chops (most likely). Price stays between 246.45 and 265.34 into and after the news. Nothing to do in the middle. Let price come to the levels.
If it goes up (less likely, about a one in three chance). A daily close over 265.34 would break the range top. Next is 267.56, the 28 Aug high, then 287.20.
If it goes down (also less likely, about a one in three chance). A daily close under 246.45 would break the range low. Next is 244.30, the 16 Sep low, then the 200-day area near 243.
Which way does the result push it out of the range? Not financial advice.
Settled 31 Oct, 06:39 UTC: wrong. Thursday 29 Oct closed at 243.79, under the 246.45 range floor. Low 229.36 after the report, Friday 240.35. This entry stays as written.
Chart as posted, 28 Oct 08:59 UTC. Daily candles to the 27 Oct close.
25 Oct03:27 UTC
ReadDaily chartHeld
↔
Sideways · slight
Wrong if two daily closes land outside 248.00 to 265.34.
Box top265.34
Box bottom248.00
Sessions in box50
Amazon has gone sideways for 50 sessions, boxed between 248.00 and 265.34. Each dip is stopping higher than the last, and the weekly and monthly still point up, so I'd lean to an upside break. My plan: nothing in the middle of the box. Look for a long near 248 if it holds, or wait for two closes above 265.34 to join a breakout. Not advice.
Settled 28 Oct, 10:13 UTC: held. Monday poked to 247.23, a dollar under 248, and closed back at 249.09. Tuesday finished at 253.10. This entry stays as written.
Chart as posted, 25 Oct 03:27 UTC. Daily candles to the 23 Oct close.
Oldest entry 25 Oct 2026
A read stays open until price settles it. Held and Hit mean the line we named did its job. Wrong means it did not. Grey means nothing triggered.
Also posted on our social channels.
The full research record, in depth, below
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Amazon holds its Distribution at $240.35. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$240.35
Valuation
19.61 trailing · 23.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.0
Beta
1.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.89%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Amazon clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-30. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AMZN's ethical verdict changes
Today AMZN passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads FAIR VALUE: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $278.49 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 19.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 58 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Online Giant's Fair Value on the Horizon
Imagine browsing online for the perfect sofa, and Amazon's vast array of options is the virtual furniture store. Its ever-growing presence in our digital lives has made it a behemoth in e-commerce. Amazon's revenue growth is a robust 20%, and its profit margin stands at a healthy 17%, all contributing to a ROE of 31%. What makes Amazon stand out is not just its scale but also its ability to innovate and expand into new markets, from cloud computing to grocery.
However, with a forward P/E of 25.0x, our analysis suggests that Amazon's current stock price is slightly overvalued compared to our fair value estimate of $275.20, which offers a modest margin of safety of +6%. Despite the strong consensus from 60 analysts with a median target of $325, the stock's current valuation reflects high expectations that may already be priced in.
While Amazon passes our ethical screen, investors should be aware of the risks associated with its cyclical nature. As a consumer cyclical company, a low P/E during peak earnings could indicate a cyclical value trap. Given its current valuation and the cyclical nature of the business, the prudent investor might seek opportunities with a more substantial margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMZN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$254.60-0.1%Entry 24
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$254.76+0.0%Entry 23
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$254.76+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$254.76+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup · changed$254.76+0.0%Entry 19
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$254.76+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$254.76+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$254.76+2.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (62 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $313. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
