Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.88 USD
Fair value9.76
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution7.28-33.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since October
2026-10-18Read Markup7.28-33.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 17% rise in 7 days
2026-10-11Read Distribution6.21-21.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown6.21-21.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since August
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AGI Inc holds its Distribution at $4.88. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$4.88
Valuation
2.34 trailing · 3.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
AGI does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when AGBK's ethical verdict changes
Today AGBK does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +162% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian payroll bank trips our ethics wire
Picture a worker in Sao Paulo waiting on their monthly payroll advance through a local specialist. AGI Inc handles those flows with secured lending and benefits processing. The business shows a 24% profit margin and trades at just 3.7 times forward earnings, yet revenue has already dropped 22% and the moat remains unclear.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags any bank exposure and this one sits squarely in that prohibited category, so the low multiple and apparent margin of safety never come into play.
Brazilian macro swings, currency moves and the negative growth trend add real downside even before ethics enter the frame. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGBK trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$7.28+17.2%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-11Distribution · changed$6.21+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$6.21+2.5%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-09-21Accumulation · changed$6.06+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-08-21Markdown$6.06-12.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-20Markdown$6.92-3.5%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markdown$7.17+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-16Markdown$7.17+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markdown$7.17+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.