Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.00, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price20.37 USD
Fair value23.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation19.13+6.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-31Read Markdown19.64+3.7% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-01Read Markup20.30+0.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Accumulation19.75+3.1% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $20.37. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$20.37
Valuation
N/A trailing · 8.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Horizon Bancorp, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when HBNC's ethical verdict changes
Today HBNC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bank looks cheap but fails ethical screen
Picture a family in Indiana depositing wages into a local branch. That money moves through Horizon Bancorp, a regional lender whose numbers already show zero profit margins and a minus 20 percent return on equity. We pass outright because the entire banking sector triggers our ethical screen.
The forward price to earnings sits at 9.1 times with revenue up 8 percent, yet the business is loss-making and carries no identifiable moat. Analyst targets hover near the current price of 20.30 dollars against our own fair value of 22 dollars, but none of that matters once the sector prohibition applies.
Risk sits in the ethical failure itself, which overrides any apparent valuation discount and leaves no investment case worth pursuing here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HBNC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-10-21Markdown$19.13+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$19.13+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$19.13+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$19.13+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$19.13+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$19.13-0.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$19.26+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$19.26-0.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$19.37-1.4%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
