Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-24
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price140.67 USD
Fair value188.24
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Accumulation151.72-7.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown148.76-5.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Vistra Corp. holds its Accumulation at $140.67. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$140.67
Valuation
25.59 trailing · 14.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
12.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.48%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.10%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $188.24 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +57% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lights On But Debt Ratio Blocks Us
Vistra keeps the power flowing from Texas to the coasts, yet the business trips our ethical screen on its debt ratio before any numbers get a proper look. Analysts love the story, with a strong buy rating and a median target well above the current price, and the reported revenue growth plus 43 percent ROE look impressive on paper. We still pass.
The ethical failure on leverage is decisive here. High debt loads in a capital heavy sector like independent power leave too little room for error when interest rates or fuel costs shift, and that single red flag overrides the apparent margin of safety to fair value.
Risk sits in that balance sheet exposure plus the usual commodity swings in generation. The screen exists for moments like this. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-08-16Markdown$140.58-5.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-18Markdown$148.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (17 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03Markdown$148.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$148.76Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.