Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.95, read 2026-10-24
Ethical passes the values gate
Price188.88 USD
Fair value181.75
Ethical score96.8/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation176.85+6.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 14% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markdown204.52-7.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-07Read Markup215.45-12.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 11% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution242.57-22.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Old Dominion holds its Accumulation at $188.88. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$188.88
Valuation
36.11 trailing · 28.09 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 96.8
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.82%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Old Dominion clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ODFL passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $181.75 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 10.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Trucking loads shrink yet the price keeps rising
Picture a freight yard where trailers sit a little longer between runs. Old Dominion moves less-than-truckload cargo across the United States with solid margins and a moderate moat, yet revenue has already slipped 3 percent while the shares trade at 36 times forward earnings.
That multiple sits well above what the numbers support. Our fair value sits 22 percent lower than the current price, and the market's hold rating with a $234 median target simply echoes the same stretched valuation. Strong 23 percent ROE and 18 percent profit margins cannot offset the lack of growth in a business that still depends on cyclical volumes.
The real risk is paying peak prices for a cyclical operator whose top line is already contracting. Ethical checks clear, but the valuation does not. Analysis, not advice.
ODFL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-24Accumulation$188.88+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$188.88+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$188.88+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$188.88+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$188.88+6.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
2026-10-02Markdown$176.85-13.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$204.52-5.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$215.45-11.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
2026-07-18Distribution$242.57+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (22 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $213.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
