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The Screen · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
FedEx
FDX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $74.3B · 300,000 employees
FedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
303.65 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 303.65 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 353.49, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-03
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price303.65 USD
Fair value353.49
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Accumulation326.04-6.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup331.00-8.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
FedEx holds its Markdown at $303.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$303.65
Valuation
16.94 trailing · 15.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
42.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 42.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.41%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $353.49 fair value, weak competitive moat, 12.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
FedEx moves parcels but fails our test
Every time a parcel drops on a doorstep overnight, FedEx is the one hauling it across borders and warehouses. The business shows 12% revenue growth and a 15% ROE at a 15.3x forward multiple, yet the weak moat and debt burden keep it off limits.
We pass because the ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a hard fail, outweighing the 12% margin of safety to our $351 fair value. Analyst targets sit higher at $359, but a 5% profit margin and limited competitive edge do not justify stepping in.
High leverage leaves the company exposed when fuel prices or volumes swing, and the ethical red flag rules out any allocation here regardless of the buy consensus. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FDX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $403.
2026-07-28Markup$314.96-4.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $403.
2026-07-18Markup$331.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $403.
2026-07-03Markup$331.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$331.00Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.