Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price1,595.00 USD
Fair value1,542.12
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown1,595.00+0.0% to today
2026-09-19Read Accumulation1,616.00-1.3% to today
2026-08-20Read Markup1,558.50+2.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution1,359.50+17.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nomura Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $1,595.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 33 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 33 days
Price at the screen
$1,595.00
Valuation
11.97 trailing · 17.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.61
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Nomura Holdings, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
8604.T trades on UNKNOWN (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$1,595.00-1.3%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
2026-08-20Markup · changed$1,558.50+2.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
2026-07-20Distribution$1,520.00+11.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
2026-07-18Distribution$1,359.50+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
2026-07-16Distribution$1,359.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1504.
2026-07-03Distribution$1,359.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$1,359.50Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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