An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ), together with its subsidiaries, provides mobile connectivity solutions to communications service providers, enterprises, and the public sector in the Americas, Europe, the Middle E…
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $10.16
Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson ADR holds its Markup at $10.16.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price
$10.16
Valuation
13.19 trailing · 16.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.50
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$10.16
13.19 P/E · 16.33 fwd
Our fair value
$7.65
25% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$9.70
-5% to current
Target low $8.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $11.40
▲ current $10.16 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$10.16
you are here
Conservative
$7.20
-29%
Analyst avg
$9.70
-5%
Our fair value
$7.65
-25%
Analyst high
$11.40
+12%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-6.10%
Profit margin
10.83%
Debt to equity
37.68
Analyst consensus
None · 6 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 14.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 16.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 30.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Ericsson networks the calls, yet sales keep shrinking
Think of Ericsson as the firm that keeps phone signals flowing across continents. Every time a call connects in Lagos or a 5G tower lights up in Stockholm, its kit is often in the middle. Yet revenue is falling 6 percent and the shares sit 22 percent above our fair value of 7.65 dollars, which is why the opportunity rating is none.
The business earns an 11 percent profit margin and posts a healthy 26 percent return on equity, while clearing our ethical screen. A narrow moat and a 15.8 times forward multiple, however, leave little room for error when growth is negative and six analysts carry an underperform consensus with a 10 dollar median target.
Risk sits with further revenue pressure and a competitive equipment market that can quickly erode margins. Currency swings from its Swedish base add another layer of volatility. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 20.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $10. Entered 2026-07-27 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Markup$9.82-20.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 20.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Markup$12.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markup$12.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$12.28Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming ERIC
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
8 May2026
Rick Allen
Republican
buy
1K–15K
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
15K–50K
5 Jun2026
David Taylor
Republican
buy
1K–15K
30 Mar2026
Alan Armstrong
Republican
buy
15K–50K
30 Mar2026
Alan Armstrong
Republican
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$12.49
-6.7%
·
$933
-6.7%
2 months
$11.88
-1.9%
·
$981
-1.9%
3 months
$11.25
+3.6%
$0.17
$1,050
+5.0%
6 months
$9.57
+21.8%
$0.17
$1,235
+23.5%
1 year
$8.20
+42.2%
$0.31
$1,460
+46.0%
2 years
$5.74
+103.0%
$0.58
$2,130
+113.0%
3 years
$4.60
+153.4%
$0.83
$2,715
+171.5%
5 years
$10.95
+6.4%
$1.33
$1,186
+18.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ERIC does next, these words stay.
Telefonaktiebolaget L M Ericsson ADR · ERIC · Markup · $10.16
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
