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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Starwood Property Trust, Inc.
STWD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.9B · 324 employees
Starwood Property Trust, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.62 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. holds its Markdown at $15.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 217 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 217 days
Price at the screen
$15.62
Valuation
26.47 trailing · 8.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs trip over their own rules
Picture a lender doling out cash for office towers and homes across borders, only for the gatekeeper to wave the whole trade away on day one. Starwood Property Trust shows solid revenue growth at 22 percent and a fat 60 percent profit margin, yet the ethical screen blocks it outright because mortgage lending sits on the prohibited list. That single fail overrides the 8.9 times forward earnings and the gap between the $17 share price and our $24 fair value.
We pass for the same reason the screen exists. The business clears none of the basic ethical hurdles that keep us out of certain sectors, regardless of how cheap the numbers appear or what the eight analysts say with their $20 median target. Low 5 percent ROE and an unknown moat only reinforce the decision to stay away.
Real estate cycles can flatten earnings fast, and mortgage exposure adds layers of interest-rate and credit risk that cheap multiples often mask. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STWD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$15.62-1.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-08-14Distribution$15.93-6.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Distribution$17.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Distribution$17.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$17.00Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
