Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.19, read 2026-10-28
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price35.43 USD
Fair value24.16
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation34.75+2.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-21Read Distribution34.03+4.1% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown35.88-1.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 5% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-13Read Distribution37.85-6.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
South Bow Corporation holds its Accumulation at $35.43. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 332 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 332 days
Price at the screen
$35.43
Valuation
15.80 trailing · 17.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
2.06%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
South Bow clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Pipelines that look pricey in a slowing patch
Every barrel that moves from Alberta to the Gulf still needs a reliable pipe, and South Bow runs one of the main routes. Yet at $37.83 the shares sit well above our fair value of $22.74, a margin of safety that is negative 40 percent. Forward earnings sit on a 19.3 times multiple while revenue is already shrinking, so the market is paying for growth that is not showing up.
The business earns a 21 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity, both respectable for midstream. Ethical screens clear without issue and the analyst herd calls it a hold with a $34 median target. Still, this is a classic cyclical value trap: earnings peak, multiples compress, and what looked like a steady toll road turns into a bet on oil volumes that can fall fast.
Commodity swings, regulatory delays on the Keystone line and any sustained drop in Canadian production remain the real risks here. The numbers do not support paying up today. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SOBO trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-14Markdown$33.22-7.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$35.88-5.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-08-13Markdown · changed$35.62-6.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Accumulation$38.17+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 46%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Accumulation$38.17+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$38.17Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
