Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.92, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price25.38 USD
Fair value40.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution25.20+0.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 19% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Accumulation30.96-18.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after an 11% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-06Read Markdown27.98-9.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Distribution29.13-12.9% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Millrose Properties, Inc. holds its Distribution at $25.38. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$25.38
Valuation
8.17 trailing · 7.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.81%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.28%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Millrose Properties, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 23%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when MRP's ethical verdict changes
Today MRP passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 57.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Land Platform Grows Fast Yet Opportunity Rating Stays Flat
Picture a homebuilder who needs finished plots ready the week construction starts, not months early or late. Millrose supplies exactly that through land acquisition and horizontal development, delivering revenue growth of 136 percent and a 65 percent profit margin at a forward multiple of just 9.1 times. The shares trade at 29.42 dollars against a 40 dollar median analyst target, offering a 36 percent margin of safety and a clean ethical pass.
Yet the opportunity rating sits at none. Return on equity of only 8 percent and an unknown moat leave the business exposed once housing cycles turn, and the low multiple may simply reflect peak earnings rather than a durable bargain. Five analysts offer no consensus rating, underscoring the lack of conviction.
Real estate remains cyclical, so thin returns on equity can linger even when growth looks strong today. The numbers do not yet clear our threshold for a positive call. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-27Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$23.46+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$23.46+5.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$22.22-0.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$22.36-11.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
