Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price15.69 USD
Fair value10.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown16.50-4.9% to today ✓
2026-08-15Read Markup16.29-3.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation15.28+2.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
UMH Properties, Inc. holds its Markdown at $15.69. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$15.69
Valuation
130.75 trailing · 92.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.40%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.34%
Below 5%
Only 3.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
UMH Properties,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 33.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Manufactured Home Communities Trade Far Above Their Worth
Picture a landlord collecting rent from rows of mobile homes across the Northeast and Midwest. UMH Properties runs 145 such communities with 27,100 sites, yet the numbers do not support the current price of $15.69. Revenue grows at 8 percent and the profit margin sits at 11 percent, but return on equity is just 3 percent and the forward multiple reaches 92 times. Our fair value sits at $10.86, leaving a 31 percent gap the wrong way and an opportunity rating of none.
The market may like the buy rating from eight analysts with a $19 median target, yet that view ignores how little cash the business actually returns to owners. Low returns on equity and an unknown competitive edge point to a plain-vanilla residential REIT that cannot justify the premium. Ethical screens clear the name, but valuation discipline still rules it out.
High payout requirements typical of REITs add pressure when interest rates stay elevated, and any slowdown in tenant demand would quickly expose thin margins. The gap between price and value leaves no margin of safety. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UMH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$15.69-4.9%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$16.50+1.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$16.29+6.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Accumulation$15.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Accumulation$15.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$15.28Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
