NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Mercury General Corporation
MCY · the NYSE · USD · 4,380 employees
Mercury General Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in writing personal automobile insurance in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
102.65 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mercury General Corporation holds its Markdown at $102.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 69 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 69 days
Price at the screen
$102.65
Valuation
6.07 trailing · 8.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Auto cover looks cheap until ethics step in
Picture a driver in California filing a claim after a fender bender. The payout still has to come from an insurer that collects premiums, manages risk and hopes weather or lawsuits do not wipe out the year. Mercury General does exactly that, posting 10% revenue growth, a 14% profit margin and 38% ROE while trading at 8.9 times forward earnings with a modest 13% gap to our assessed value.
We pass outright. The ethical screen flags the entire insurance sector on prohibited keywords, and that single rule overrides every other number on the page. One analyst target sits at the same $120 level we use, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because the screen is non-negotiable.
P&C underwriting remains hostage to catastrophe losses, inflation in repair costs and state regulators who can cap rates overnight. A low multiple on peak earnings has trapped value investors before. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MCY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$106.28-0.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-08-05Markup$107.12+6.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-18Markup$100.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $120.
2026-07-03Markup$100.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$100.93Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
