NAS10031,224+0.48%S&P7,819+0.58%GOLD$4,155−0.77%BTC$84,202−1.58%VIX15.01−3.29%live tape · as of 07:27 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Aluminum
Constellium SE
CSTM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.3B · 11,500 employees
Constellium SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of rolled and extruded aluminum products for the aerospace, packaging, automotive, commercial transportation, general industria…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
24.66 USD
Screen close, 2026-10-01 · not a live quote Last reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-01 · the tape above runs as of 07:27 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 24.66 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 29.46, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price24.66 USD
Fair value29.46
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown24.66+0.0% to today
2026-08-26Read Distribution27.08-8.9% to today ✓
2026-07-25Read Markdown28.12-12.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup35.60-30.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Constellium SE holds its Markdown at $24.66. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$24.66
Valuation
6.37 trailing · 8.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Constellium SE's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aluminium Cycles Turn Cheap Valuations Into Traps
Every plane that flies or can that gets crushed relies on aluminium rolling through factories that boom then bust with the economy. Constellium shows a 24% revenue jump, 46% ROE and a forward multiple of just 9.6 times, yet opportunity sits at none because this is exactly how cyclical aluminium names flash peak earnings before the next downturn arrives.
The business clears our ethical screen and carries a 5% profit margin across aerospace and packaging work, but an unknown moat leaves it exposed when input costs or demand swing hard. Analysts see upside to 37 dollars, yet the 10% gap to our fair value of 30.85 dollars does not overcome the pattern of low multiples marking the top of the cycle rather than a bargain.
Risk sits in those swings, where strong recent returns can vanish fast once volumes slow and margins compress. The low multiple here is a warning, not an invitation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to France and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CSTM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in France). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$24.66-8.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-25Markdown · changed$28.12-21.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 21.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-18Markup$35.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-03Markup$35.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$35.60Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
