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The Screen · Basic Materials · Packaging & Containers
Smurfit Westrock
SW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $22.6B · 97,000 employees
Smurfit Westrock Plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells containerboard, corrugated containers, and other paper-based packaging products in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Af…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.53, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price44.51 USD
Fair value42.58
Ethical score84.7/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Accumulation43.42+2.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-14Read Markdown42.20+5.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-14Read Markup48.47-8.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 17% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution41.28+7.8% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Smurfit Westrock holds its Accumulation at $44.51. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$44.51
Valuation
47.88 trailing · 12.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.7
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.36%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Smurfit Westrock clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SW's ethical verdict changes
Today SW passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $42.58 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 2.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $42.58, with a range of $41.40 to $48.96, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cardboard boxes hide a cyclical trap
Every online order arrives in a brown box made from containerboard. Smurfit Westrock sits at the centre of that supply chain across dozens of countries, yet its numbers show almost no growth and wafer-thin returns.
Forward earnings sit at 13 times while revenue edges up just 1 percent, profit margins hover at 1 percent and return on equity reaches only 2 percent. The market sees a strong buy with targets near 56 dollars, yet our fair value sits at 42.20 dollars and the business carries a weak moat in a sector where peaks rarely last.
Because this is a cyclical industry, the low multiple is a warning rather than a bargain. Peak earnings often coincide with peak multiples in disguise, leaving investors holding capacity that turns unprofitable when volumes turn. Ethical screen clears, yet the economics remain thin. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SW trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-28Markdown$41.16+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-21Markdown$41.16-0.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-14Markdown$41.29-8.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-10-02Markdown$45.07+6.8%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$42.20-12.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$48.47+17.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-18Distribution$41.28+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-03Distribution$41.28+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$41.28Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
