Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price102.01 USD
Fair value90.33
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-29Read Accumulation103.99-1.9% to today
2026-07-18Read Markup95.29+7.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Starbucks holds its Markdown at $102.01. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$102.01
Valuation
58.97 trailing · 32.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
83.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 83.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.77%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.30%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for alleged corporate ties to Israel, including franchise operations and public statements of support during the 2023 conflict. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $90.33 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 31 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Starbucks Brewing More Trouble Than Coffee
Imagine you're strolling into your local Starbucks, but instead of a pick-me-up, you're handed a mug of debt. That's the bitter brew our analysis is serving up for Starbucks. With a forward P/E of 33.4x, the stock is being priced at a premium, and our fair value of $90.27 suggests investors are paying a 13% premium for a cup of something less than joe. The company's debt ratio has it failing our ethical screen, signaling financial health concerns.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we're passing, is a mix of high valuation and ethical concerns. Revenue growth is negative at -1%, and a profit margin of merely 5% isn't enough to stir up enthusiasm in our books. Despite thirty-one analysts giving it a buy rating with a median target of $112, our numbers suggest a different story.
The risk here is twofold: a cyclical value trap with peak earnings leading to a misleadingly low P/E, and ethical red flags that could taint the brand's reputation. The market may be bullish, but our analysis keeps us on the sidelines. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SBUX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-28Markup$103.25+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$103.25+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$103.25+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$103.25-2.1%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$105.49+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$105.49+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$105.49+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$105.49+10.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$95.29+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $107. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
