Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.41, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price22.03 USD
Fair value29.55
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markup20.37+8.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-02Read Accumulation20.37+8.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 4 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markup19.01+15.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-30Read Accumulation18.77+17.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Petrobras holds its Markup at $22.03. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$22.03
Valuation
6.39 trailing · 6.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.91%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.43%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.43%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Petrobras clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 4% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when PBR's ethical verdict changes
Today PBR passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $29.55 fair value, 42.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Petrobras: Submerged Value in the Oil Rush
Imagine the global energy market as a vast ocean, and Petrobras is a ship sailing through it, with a strong wind of revenue growth (42%) in its sails. At $19.01, the market is pricing Petrobras below our fair value of $25.66, indicating a substantial margin of safety at +35%. Why it stands out is not just its stock price, but also its robust profit margins at 24% and a commendable return on equity of 30%. These figures suggest that Petrobras is navigating the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry with efficiency and profitability.
However, like all vessels in the energy ocean, Petrobras is subject to the volatile waves of the market. With a forward P/E of 4.8x, the stock looks temptingly cheap, but this is a CYCLICAL industry—peak earnings can lead to a low multiple, which might be a warning rather than a bargain. This cyclical value trap is a navigational hazard investors must consider.
As for ethics, Petrobras sails clear of any concerns, passing our ethical screen. Despite the allure of its current price and strong financials, investors must keep a weather eye on the cyclical storms that can impact the industry. With 14 analysts consensus rating a buy and a median target of $22, there's a general optimism about Petrobras' journey ahead. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PBR trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markup$25.30+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 41% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-10-18Markup$25.30+24.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$20.37+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-09-06Markup · changed$19.01+3.5%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-06Accumulation$18.36-2.2%Entry 11
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Accumulation$18.77+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Accumulation$18.77+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Accumulation$18.77+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Accumulation$18.77+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
