Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
NVR, Inc. holds its Markdown at $6,187.30. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$6,187.30
Valuation
16.08 trailing · 15.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.9
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.98%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $6,152.78 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Homebuilder Keeps Building Through the Slowdown
When families still need a roof even as borrowing costs rise, NVR keeps turning land into homes across the United States. The business delivers a 33 percent return on equity and 12 percent profit margins while holding a moderate competitive edge. Forward earnings sit at 15.5 times despite revenue falling 21 percent, and the ethical screen raises no flags.
That combination of efficiency and clean governance marks the case for watching the name. Shares trade above our fair value yet the cyclical residential sector rarely stays down forever. A hold rating from five analysts leaves the door open if volumes recover.
The obvious risk is the cycle itself. Revenue already sliding hard and a negative margin of safety mean any further slowdown in buyer demand could pressure results quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6782.
2026-08-07Distribution$6,304.81+2.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7132.
2026-07-18Distribution$6,182.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7132.
2026-07-03Distribution$6,182.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$6,182.55Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
