The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $330. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
McDonald's MCD
Clears the common standardAn entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
read at $264.76
McDonald's holds its Distribution at $264.76.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days |
| Price | $264.76 |
| Valuation | 21.81 trailing · 18.75 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | FAIL · score 10.0 |
| Beta | 0.42 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $297.19 fair value, 9.40% revenue growth.
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
| Revenue growth | 9.40% |
| Profit margin | 31.62% |
| Analyst consensus | Buy · 31 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✓ PASSES
The one Titan applies ✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is 92.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 29.2%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.7% of assets, under the one-third limit. Pass
- Receivables Money owed to the company is 5.4% of assets, under the 49% limit. Pass
- Revenue purity Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Burgers fly out daily yet debt piles up
Walk into any McDonald's and the tills ring constantly, from families in Chicago to commuters in Tokyo. The business delivers 9% revenue growth and 32% profit margins, with a forward P/E of 18.9x that looks reasonable next to analyst targets near 320. Yet the numbers hide a clear problem.
We pass for one straightforward reason. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio, and that alone triggers an AVOID rating despite the 12% margin of safety to our fair value of 299.16. Popularity with 31 analysts does not override the balance sheet test.
High leverage leaves the company exposed when interest rates stay elevated or consumer spending slows. Cyclical restaurant demand can mask these risks until they surface quickly. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 18.7x priced for continued growth |
| Trailing P/E | 21.8x a premium valuation |
| Revenue growth | 9.4% steady growth |
| Profit margin | 31.6% highly profitable on every dollar of sales |
| Current ratio | 1.14 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.42 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $188.1B |
| Employees | 150,000 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Latest news · what the market is reading on MCD
- › A Turnaround Is Brewing At Starbucks. Here’s Where It’ll End The Year 24/7 Wall St. · 2d ago
- › McDonald's Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Key Factors to Watch Zacks · 2d ago
- › McDonald's Reports Earnings Aug. 4. Here's How Much $10,000 Invested Pays Annually. Motley Fool · 2d ago
- › Should You Buy McDonald's Stock Before Aug. 4? Motley Fool · 3d ago
- › Publicis Is Winning the AI Advertising Race, and Its Stock Still Looks Cheap Barrons.com · 3d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.
Related securities · others in MCD's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MCD trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $330. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $330. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $330. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (32 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $330. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale | Sale | 7,734 | · |
| 2026-04-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale | Sale | 8,067 | · |
| 2026-04-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale+OE | Sale | 8,400 | · |
| 2026-03-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale | Sale | 8,400 | · |
| 2026-03-18 | Baroni Dario | S - Sale | Sale | 1,063 | · |
| 2026-03-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale+OE | Sale | 8,733 | · |
| 2026-02-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | S - Sale | Sale | 8,733 | · |
| 2026-02-23 | Banner Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Sale | 2,291 | · |
| 2026-02-12 | Kempczinski Christopher J | COB, CEO | Sale | 66,288 | · |
| 2026-02-12 | Flatley Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Sale | 7,396 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | Sale | 15K–50K |
| 15 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 15K–50K |
| 1 May2026 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | sell | 15K–50K |
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $272.75 | +3.9% | $1.86 | $1,046 | +4.6% |
| 2 months | $303.62 | -6.6% | $1.86 | $940 | -6.0% |
| 3 months | $321.73 | -11.9% | $1.86 | $887 | -11.3% |
| 6 months | $305.91 | -7.3% | $3.72 | $939 | -6.1% |
| 1 year | $293.31 | -3.4% | $7.35 | $992 | -0.8% |
| 2 years | $242.11 | +17.1% | $14.33 | $1,230 | +23.0% |
| 3 years | $267.22 | +6.1% | $20.86 | $1,139 | +13.9% |
| 5 years | $211.22 | +34.2% | $32.23 | $1,495 | +49.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.